Wait & Speak Podcast

#21 - Futures thinking: Distinguishing trends from fads

I spoke with Doris Viljoen about the role of trends and fads in futures thinking. We considered the difference between trends and fads, the dimensions of change, the approach futurists use when thinking about the future, macrotrends, technology and the macro environment.

Doris Viljoen is the director of Stellenbosch University’s Institute for Futures Research (IFR) where she endeavours to interpret global as well as local trends and assess their relevance for South Africa and Africa. She has specialised skills in environmental scanning, the application of foresight methodology, scenario planning as well as strategy development.  Before joining the IFR, Doris did consulting work on feasibility and location assessment studies for large capital projects and received the top student award on the M.Phil Futures Studies programme. She has a wide range of research interests and is passionate about asking the right questions, searching for and finding relevant data as well as designing tools and techniques to facilitate thinking about plausible futures. She is well versed in multiple scenario planning techniques and has facilitated decision making teams through scenario exercises on topics ranging from infrastructure planning, higher education, and downstream metals beneficiation to the futures of work in South Africa.

Doris also lectures on the academic programmes in Futures Studies at the University of Stellenbosch Business School. Her particular areas of specialty are scenario planning, organisational foresight, futures studies frameworks, tools and techniques, and managing foresight projects.  Her research towards a PhD in Futures Studies looks at the future of work, specifically focusing on non-conventional employment engagements.

Further reading:

IFR: Futures of agricultural employment in South Africa 2035

OECD: About Strategic Foresight

George Day and Paul Schoemaker: See Sooner, Act Faster

Useful resources on Futures thinking

UNESCO on Futures literacy

 

#20 - Reshaping public transportation: the impact of smart mobility

I spoke with Michal Reut-Gelbart about public transport in the context of the smart mobility revolution.

Michal is a Manager with KPMG’s Strategy practice in Ireland. Michal was previously the CEO of Future Mobility IL, a non-profit NGO that seeks to promote implementation of smart mobility solutions and reduce road congestion and air pollution. This is achieved by promoting effective public policy in the mobility sector and working in collaboration with all relevant stakeholders. She is an expert in the MaaS (Mobility as a Service) revolution and sustainable transportation.

Michal also has vast experience in public policy after serving in the Budget Division at the Israeli Ministry of Finance, where she was responsible for national innovation and high education system budgets. Michal has experience as an economist in a global listed high-tech company and in a global consulting firm in the corporate finance team. 

 

Resources for further reading:

Integrating Public Transport into Mobility as a Service

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) – a new way of using ITS in public transport

How Mobility as a Service Impacts Public Transport Business Models

The Innovative Mobility Landscape: The Case of Mobility as a Service

Mobility to 2030

#19 - Aviation 2030: ground handling beyond COVID-19

KPMG has produced several publications in a series on aviation and aerospace. Given the investment, R&D development and regulatory timelines in aviation are longer, strategic decisions about where to place bets or anticipate disruption for 5-10 years out starts now.

The first publication, launched just before the pandemic, looked at several topics like sustainability in propulsion technology and the return of supersonics. The second looked at the potential long-term legacy of COVID as well as topics like urban air mobility.

The most recent (3^rd) focused on ground handling. The pandemic has proven seismic across aviation - but not terminal. In common with other segments, the ground handling industry will likely survive, but it cannot afford to return to pre-pandemic norms. Players should use the opportunity presented by today’s lower volumes to get ahead of the trends that can shape the coming decade.

I spoke with Chris Brown to learn more.

Chris is the national lead of KPMG’s Strategy practice in Ireland. Specialising in strategy and new service revenue streams for the past 15 years, Chris has led over 250 strategic reviews, portfolio strategies, growth strategies, market entries, commercial due diligences and similar projects. Besides working in the UK and Ireland, he has lived and worked in China, Hong Kong, Japan and mainland Europe, leading market entry strategies in over a dozen other markets.

Further reading:

Aviation 2030: issue 1 - Disruption and its implications for the aviation sector

Aviation 2030: issue 2 - Disruption beyond COVID-19

Aviation 2030: issue 3 - Ground handling beyond COVID-19

#18 - Mobility to 2030

Emerging technologies, population growth, urbanisation and environmental concerns are driving the creation of a new generation of transport solutions, with the potential to transform how people and goods are moved.

KPMG Ireland’s recent publication, Mobility 2030, considers Ireland’s readiness to benefit from the opportunities presented by mobility disruptors such as Electric Vehicles (EVs), Mobility as a Service (MaaS) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). I spoke with Chris Brown to learn more.

Chris is the national lead of KPMG’s Strategy practice in Ireland. Specialising in strategy and new service revenue streams for the past 15 years, Chris has led over 250 strategic reviews, portfolio strategies, growth strategies, market entries, commercial due diligences and similar projects. Besides working in the UK and Ireland, he has lived and worked in China, Hong Kong, Japan and mainland Europe, leading market entry strategies in over a dozen other markets.

Further reading:

• Mobility to 2030: https://home.kpmg/ie/en/home/insights/2021/06/mobility-2030-strategy.html

 

#17 - The relevance of utopian thinking: perspectives from Philosophy & Futures Studies

“Progress is the realisation of utopias” - Oscar Wilde

I had an engaging conversation with Doris Viljoen and Schalk Engelbrecht. We discussed the relevance of utopian thinking with perspectives from Philosophy and Futures Studies.

Doris is a senior futurist at Stellenbosch University’s Institute for Futures Research (IFR) where she endeavours to interpret global as well as local trends and assess their relevance for South Africa and Africa. She has specialised skills in environmental scanning, the application of foresight methodology, scenario planning as well as strategy development.  Before joining the IFR, Doris did consulting work on feasibility and location assessment studies for large capital projects and received the top student award on the M.Phil Futures Studies programme. She has a wide range of research interests and is passionate about asking the right questions, searching for and finding relevant data as well as designing tools and techniques to facilitate thinking about plausible futures. She is well versed in multiple scenario planning techniques and has facilitated decision making teams through scenario exercises on topics ranging from infrastructure planning, higher education, and downstream metals beneficiation to the futures of work in South Africa.

Doris also lectures on the academic programmes in Futures Studies at the University of Stellenbosch Business School. Her particular areas of specialty are scenario planning, organisational foresight, futures studies frameworks, tools and techniques, and managing foresight projects.  Her research towards a PhD in Futures Studies looks at the future of work, specifically focusing on non-conventional employment engagements.

Schalk is an ethicist, the Chief Ethics Officer at KPMG in South Africa, and a student of philosophy. He is responsible for KPMG’s internal ethics programme, and assists client companies to identify ethics risk, develop Codes of Ethics, design ethics management programmes and facilitate ethics training.

Schalk is also a research associate with the Centre for Applied Ethics at Stellenbosch University. In 2010 he completed his PhD in Philosophy with a thesis on the need to revive utopian thinking in an anti-utopian age. He has presented papers at national and international conferences on topics that include "radical business ethics", "the problem of the commons in organisations", and "ethics and utopian thinking". He is published in academic and popular journals and has been an invited speaker at conferences and provincial Anti-Corruption events.

Before joining KPMG Schalk lectured Philosophy and Ethics at the University of Stellenbosch and North-West University. He has lectured Business Ethics as part of the University of Stellenbosch Business School's MBA programme, and was the previous editor-in-chief of the African Journal of Business Ethics.

Resources:

Bellamy, E., & Beaumont, M. (2007). Looking backward, 2000-1887. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Bregman, Rutger. (2017). Utopia for Realists. London, England: Bloomsbury Publishing PLC.

Cooke, M. (2004). Redeeming Redemption: The Utopian Dimension of Critical Social Theory. Philosophy & Social Criticism, 30(4), 413–429. https://doi.org/10.1177/0191453704044026

Hines, A.(2020). Utopia is a moving target: https://www.andyhinesight.com/after-capitalism/utopia-is-a-moving-target/

Huxley, A. (2007). Brave new world. Toronto: Vintage Canada.

More, T., & Turner, P. (1965). Utopia. London: Penguin Books.

Skidelsky, R., & Skidelsky, E. (2012). How much is enough?: Money and the good life. New York: Other Press.

Tankersley, J. (2018). Reimagining Our Tomorrows: Making Sure Your Future Doesn't Suck. Unique Visions, Incorporated.

#16 - Organisational change: changing for the better

I spoke with Sarah Babb about organisational change. We covered the key types of change organisations face, success factors for change initiatives, change frameworks including Theory U and the Cynefin framework for managing complexity, linking strategy with change management and futures thinking and leadership development for effective change.

Sarah designs and leads innovative and impactful learning and change processes for leaders, teams, entrepreneurs, and organisations seeking to create the new world we all want to live in.

Sarah is passionate about enabling futures thinking capacities in executive programmes, coaching circles, and change processes. Over twenty years she has led many exciting programmes: from leading scenarios projects, to national skills programmes, to leading culture change, to leadership development. Trained with global experts in Theory U, Cynefin and Waysfinder, Transformative Scenarios amongst other techniques. 

Sarah is a Professional Associate at GIBS and Part-time faculty at USB and USB Exec Ed. Her qualifications include: BA (Industrial Psychology & Industrial Sociology), PDM (HR), MBA (cum laude, GIBS), PhD (Leadership Identity Development, submit 2020). For more see Sarah’s website: www.laminar.co.za

Further reading:

• Berger, J. G. (2019). Unlocking leadership mindtraps: How to thrive in complexity.
• David, S. A. (2016). Emotional agility: Get unstuck, embrace change, and thrive in work and life.
• Heifetz, R. A., Grashow, A., & Linsky, M. (2009). The practice of adaptive leadership: Tools and tactics for changing your organization and the world. Boston, Mass: Harvard Business Press.
• Kegan, R., Lahey, L. L., Miller, M. L., Fleming, A., & Helsing, D. (2016). An everyone culture: Becoming a deliberately developmental organization.
• Uhl-Bien, M., Marion, R., & McKelvey, B. (2007). Complexity leadership theory: Shifting leadership from the industrial age to the knowledge era. The leadership quarterly, 18(4), 298-318.

Further resources:

• Theory U: https://www.presencing.org/aboutus/theory-u
• Cynefin framework: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_waoADNcaBU

#15 Africa First - Turning potential into prosperity

I spoke with Jakkie Cilliers from the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) team at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria. We discussed Jakkie’s new book, Africa First! Igniting a Growth Revolution.

The discussion covered the key developmental challenges facing Africa and the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform that was used to model scenarios on how the continent can ignite a growth revolution. We also touched on Africa’s Current Path - the likely development trajectory assuming current policies continue going forward, the key scenario insights policy makers should adopt to shift to prosperity, the impact of COVID-19 and AFI’s ongoing research that builds on the work done for Africa First.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the Chairman of the ISS Board of Trustees and Head of the African Futures and Innovation team in Pretoria. Jakkie co-founded the ISS in 1990 and was the executive director until 2015. He is an Extraordinary Professor in the Centre of Human Rights and the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty Humanities at the University of Pretoria.  His 2017 book on the future of South Africa Fate of the Nation – 3 scenarios for South Africa’s future was on the best seller list for several months. His most recent book (March 2020) is Africa First! Igniting a Growth Revolution.  He has a DLitt et Phil from the University of South Africa.

Further reading:

Jakkie’s book: Africa First! - https://www.jakkiecilliers.org/africa-first?gclid=CjwKCAjwps75BRAcEiwAEiACMVTLhdzpwfeLSbgjBPDPuPQvgyLYiezW9_kRI2Tv0XDw32lzl_aGyBoCSeoQAvD_BwE

Pardee Center for International Futures - https://pardee.du.edu/

#14 The Circular economy & circular fashion

I spoke with Laura Balmond about the circular economy and circular fashion. We covered the benefits of a circular economy transformation, the challenges, the “linear operation” of the textiles industry and opportunities to make fashion circular.

Laura joined the Ellen MacArthur Foundation in 2015 following two years as a Management consultant, and completing her Masters in Environmental Engineering. Laura’s first few years at the Foundation saw her work on a co-funded EU project, ResCoM (Resource Conservative Manufacturing) and research and co-author the reports ‘Circular Economy in India’ and ‘A New Textiles Economy - Redesigning Fashion’s Future’.

Now, as Programme Manager in the Make Fashion Circular team at the Foundation, Laura manages relationships with the Make Fashion Circular participants, key industry stakeholders and coordinates the Jeans Redesign - a project which sets minimum criteria for jeans to ensure they are made from safe materials, can be kept in use and turned into new jeans once they can no longer be worn.

Further reading:

Ellen MacArthur Foundation

A New Textiles Economy: Redesigning fashion’s Future                               

The Jeans Redesign Guidelines

Circular Economy in India: Rethinking growth for long-term prosperity

The ResCoM (Resource Conservative Manufacturing) project

Ellen MacArthur Foundation

The Centre for Sustainable Design

WRAP

Central Saint Martins

Raworth, K. (2017). Doughnut economics: seven ways to think like a 21st-century economist. London: Random House.

#13 The ethics of human enhancement

I spoke with Susan Hall about the ethics of human enhancement. Activities such as physical fitness routines and taking music lessons do not seem to raise any philosophical problems. However, a current example that elicits debate is Elon Musk’s Neuralink, his neural technology company that is developing an implant designed to interface directly with the human brain. Our discussion covered the types of enhancements that are considered in the philosophical debates and the various arguments that arise.

Dr Susan Hall is a lecturer in the Philosophy Department and Centre for Applied Ethics at Stellenbosch University. She completed her PhD dissertation, “Harm and Enhancement: Philosophical and Ethical Perspectives” in 2012, and her research interests include Bioethics and the ethics of technology. She is currently working on the ethics of biotechnological human enhancement and bioethical issues related to the participation of intersex athletes in sporting competition.

Further reading:

• The Stanford Encyclopaedia entry on human enhancement provides a useful overview of the debate: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/enhancement/
• Buchanan, A.  2008.  Enhancement and the Ethics of Development.  Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal, 18 (1): 1-34. (Summarises some of the central arguments that appear in his book below.)
• Buchanan, A., 2011. Beyond Humanity?: The Ethics of Biomedical Enhancement, Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.
• Harris, J.  2007.  Enhancing Evolution: The Ethical Case for Making Better People. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Kass, L. 1997. “The Wisdom of Repugnance”, New Republic, 216(22): 17–26.
• Sandel, M.  2004.  The Case Against Perfection: What’s Wrong with Designer Children, Bionic Athletes, and Genetic Engineering. The Atlantic Monthly, 293 (3): 51-62, available at: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/04/the-case-against-perfection/302927/, and his later book (2007),  The Case Against Perfection.  Cambridge & London: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
• Earp, B.D. & Savulescu, J. 2020. Love is the Drug: The Chemical Future of Our Relationships. Manchester: Manchester University Press.

 

#12 The impact of COVID-19 in Africa - scenarios to 2030

I spoke with Jakkie Cilliers and Stellah Kwasi from the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) team at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria. We discussed their recent report on the impact of COVID-19 in Africa.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the Chairman of the ISS Board of Trustees and Head of the African Futures and Innovation team in Pretoria. Jakkie co-founded the ISS in 1990 and was the executive director until 2015. He is an Extraordinary Professor in the Centre of Human Rights and the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty Humanities at the University of Pretoria.  His 2017 book on the future of South Africa Fate of the Nation – 3 scenarios for South Africa’s future was on the best seller list for several months. His most recent book (March 2020) is Africa First! Igniting a Growth Revolution.  He has a DLitt et Phil from the University of South Africa.

Stellah Kwasi joined ISS in April 2018 as a Researcher in the African Futures and Innovation programme in Pretoria. Before joining the ISS she was a research affiliate at the Fredrick S Pardee Center of International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Colorado. At Pardee, Stellah worked on international non-government organisations' trends and sub-regional data analysis in conjunction with QED/USAID in Uganda. Before that she was an intern at the ISS. Stellah has a Master’s degree in international development from the University of Denver.

Further reading:

Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: a scenario analysis to 2030 - https://issafrica.org/research/africa-report/impact-of-covid-19-in-africa-a-scenario-analysis-to-2030

Watch the associated webinar here - https://issafrica.org/events/updated-forecasts-impact-of-covid-19-in-africa

Webinar presentation - https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2020-07-23-covid-presentation-jakkie-1.pdf

Jakkie’s book: Africa First! - https://www.jakkiecilliers.org/africa-first?gclid=CjwKCAjwps75BRAcEiwAEiACMVTLhdzpwfeLSbgjBPDPuPQvgyLYiezW9_kRI2Tv0XDw32lzl_aGyBoCSeoQAvD_BwE

Pardee Center for International Futures - https://pardee.du.edu/